Studies of Economic Change

Comparison 1993 - 2006

The analysis of the population forecast of the Statistisches Bundesamt shows the huge impact of the demographic development on the aging society. The comparison of the 8th with the 11th forecast is an excursion related to chapter 3 about the forecast of the unemployment rate. The starting point there is the year 1994 in order to prove the assumptions of chapter 1. Therefore the comparison period between the actual and the forecasted figures is long enough. Consequently the 8th population forecast from the year 1993 is used in order to forecast the unemployment rate while the latest forecast is dated to the year 2006. This means that both forecasts have to comply approximately with each other to confirm the statements about the demographic development in this chapter.

The result of the analysis depends on the choice of the variation within a single population forecast as well. The 8th forecast for example consists of only 3 variations while the 11th forecast consists of 12 different scenarios. Comparable seams to be the 2nd variation of the 8th forecast with the 1st variation of the 11th forecast as both variations represent average figures concerning birth rates, immigration rates, mortality rates, life expectation, and others.

Both forecasts show a similar development of the relation between the different age groups. The differences between both forecast seam to be less than the differences between the variations within a single population forecast. Consequently the main conclusion of this analysis is not or only marginal affected even if the selected variation of the 11th forecast shows a share of the 65 to 100 year olds which is about 4% higher than the selected variation of the 8th forecast for the year 2040.

According to the doubling of the share of the 65 to 100 year olds within the next 50 years the deviation of 4% between the forecast dated to the year 1993 and the forecast dated to the year 2006 is only marginal. That the doubling of this share is not a fundamental problem to the social structure and cohesion is documented in the following subchapters. If the decline of the population - which is not shown in the graphic - is desirable or not is not evaluated in this study. It is true that the aging society requires huge social changes. But it is not a real or unsolvable problem. The social and economic resources suffice to deal with this challenge.